New study shows uncertainty pushes footballers to perform better

Footballers, whose nomination for their national team is uncertain, are substantially more motivated in the months approaching a World Cup or European Championship than players certain of their nomination. Nominated players even perform worse in that time period. The prospective participation in the national team is a particular motivation for younger footballers to boost their performances. This is the result of a recent study conducted by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW). The study was designed to analyze the incentives deriving from nomination contests using data from the German Football League.

Werder Bremen's Özil skips away from his marker. Photo: Nicholas Macgowan/Flickr (CC)

The study evaluated various performance features such as scored goals, successful tackles or received passes in the German football league seasons 2006/2007 and 2007/2008. This period covers both the qualification phase for the European Championship 2008, which took place in Austria and Switzerland, and the time between successful qualification and the announcement of national team rosters for the Championship. This implies that, during the months approaching the European Championship 2008, many international players in the German Football League had the opportunity to recommend themselves to the national team of their respective country by increasing their performance.

Overall, the study examined 165 players from 12 countries, who took part in the nomination contest for the European Championship 2008, and compared their performances with 81 players from 33 countries, who were not considered for EURO 2008 in the first place and did not take part in the nomination contest.

It turns out that incentives in the nomination contest are distributed asymmetrically. The reaction of players with a medium probability of being included in the national team is highly positive as these players were presented with the opportunity of playing for their home country in European Championships. In the case of footballers expecting to be nominated, the effect of the nomination competition has not been found to be positive and, in part, was even negative.

For example, players with a medium probability of being nominated averaged 27 percent more shots on goal than players who did not take part in the nomination contest in the months approaching the tournament. Players, who were certain of being nominated did not score more goals than players in the comparison group. On average, they even had 1.5 fewer successful duels per match than fellow players and opponents who did not participate in the nomination contest.

The study indicates that younger players react strongest to the possibility of being included in the national team. Footballers in the nomination contest at the age of 20 achieved on average 4.5 ball contacts per match more than players at the same age, who did not participate in the nomination contest. Players at the age of 30, who had the possibility of being included in the national team, even had around one ball contact less than players of the same age, who did not participate in the nomination contest.

On average, players in the German football league achieved 57 ball contacts per match. This indicates that the participation in an international tournament has a greater meaning to younger players than for the career of older players, who may already be heading towards the end of their career.

Source: www.zew.de